大模型发布节奏如何影响上市公司股价：传导机制、量化框架与 2025–2026 实战复盘
把"模型发布"当成一类可度量的事件冲击来研究。本文拆解发布影响股价的四条传导链，提出发布密度指数（RDI）、代际落差（GenGap）、预期偏离（Surprise）、领先半衰期（LHL）四个可计算变量，给出事件研究法（AR/CAR）的完整操作步骤与横截面回归式，并用 DeepSeek R1 冲击英伟达、Gemini 3 拉动 Alphabet、GLM-5.2 把智谱送上万亿、Kimi K3 两日击落智谱 42%、GLM-5.3"更强却更跌"、GPT-6 Astra 引发"硬件跌停应用涨停"等 7 个正反面样本做复盘。
阅读全文 →
最新文章
LATEST 共 304 条What Else Needs Fixing? Exploring Cost-Effective Test-Time Compute for Revision Propagation in Artifacts Generated Through Conversation
Large Language Models (LLMs) often help users generate artifacts through iterative cycles of generation and revision in …
RoboTok: An Internet-Scale Data Engine for Human Demonstration Retrieval and Dexterous Manipulation Learning
Robot learning increasingly depends on broad and diverse demonstrations, yet collecting robot data remains expensive and…
Let Confidence Change, Not the Prediction: Prediction-Preserving Repair for Post-hoc Calibration
Post-hoc calibration corrects reported confidence, yet a multiclass calibrator can also change the associated top-1 pred…
From Reweighting to Rewriting: Unlocking the Intervention Effects of Influential Samples in Training Data Attribution
Training data attribution (TDA) aims to identify training examples that shape model behavior, but its intervention value…
A Common Measure of Communication for Speech Brain-Computer Interfaces
Speech brain-computer interfaces (speech BCIs) translate neural activity into language, offering a path towards restorin…
Bilevel Coordinated Reflection: A Game-Theoretic Approach to Multi-Agent LLM Systems
Multi-agent LLM systems commonly use an orchestrator to decompose a task for a team of workers and then improve through …
ShallowStream: Index Shallow then Answer Deep for Streaming Video Understanding
Streaming video understanding is a critical capability for real-world applications, including embodied intelligence, aut…
Unifying Conformal Language Tasks with In-Context Ensembles
Many NLP tasks, such as summarization and extractive question answering, reduce to retrieving relevant content from docu…
VeriPhy: Agentic Physical Reasoning for World Model Evaluation and Refinement
Visual fluency in generated video does not imply physical reliability, and a scalar quality score alone is incapable of …
Causal Foundation Models
Causal inference is the practice of estimating the effect of a treatment or intervention from data. It traditionally req…
Verify Before You Distill: Prompt-Level Teacher Gating for On-Policy Distillation
On-policy distillation (OPD) accelerates post-training by providing dense token-level supervision from a frozen teacher …
Graph Machine: Towards Better Pretraining via Edges
We introduce the Graph Machine (GM), an architecture that maintains an O(n)-sized state and accesses it through sparse, …